Rent Growth Likely to Slow as Uncertainty from COVID-19 Looms Over the Market

Prior to the March onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, and related virus control measures bringing business across the state to a halt, the Austin office market witnessed some softening in availability as asking rents continued to push higher. At the end of the first quarter, the overall average asking rent stood at $39.28 per square foot (psf), reflecting annual (9.2%) and quarterly (2.4%) increases. Class A asking rents increased by 5.8% over the year to $42.93 psf. Central Business District and suburban asking rents increased by 6.7% and 7.7% year over year through the first quarter, respectively. As the market adjusts itself to the shifts that COVID-19 has created, rental rate growth is expected to slow. Downward pressure is likely to come from an influx of sublease space on the market as venture-capitalfunded technology companies implement cost-saving measures. Availability rates see year over year softening and are expected to continue to rise as COVID-19 reality sets in Austin’s overall availability rate increased by 10 basis points over the quarter, and 280 basis points year over year, to 13.8% in the first quarter of 2020. In comparison, the average Class A availability rate declined 20 basis points over the quarter, but is still up 430 basis points on an annual basis (14.9%). Market fundamentals differ some in the core and surrounding markets, the Central Business District availability rate rose by 200 basis points to 11.1%, while the average suburban availability rate declined by 30 basis points, to 14.5%. Click to read more at www.savills.us.

‘Everybody’s on the same ship:’ Impact of coronavirus ripples through Houston’s economy

Tacos a Go Go built a reputation for its lamb barbacoa and frozen margaritas. In a way, the meal was a feat of alchemy. It brought together meat and tomatoes, tequila and lime, and produced the stuff of early morning taco runs, catered birthday buffets and late nights out with friends. But the act of transformation didn’t end there. The food was then turned into paychecks for employees, orders for vendors and rents for landlords, who, in turn, converted it into spending of their own. It was an everyday miracle, performed, in one version or another, by restaurants, retailers, salons and other businesses around the world until the need to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus clamped down on social interactions. The question is, how soon will that miracle return? Stay-at-home orders have been lifted in Texas, but fears of the pandemic’s resurgence, a decrease in disposable income and an increase in deferred debt remain for many. Workers have seen hours and paychecks reduced, vendors and their salespeople have lost sales and commissions and landlords have begun negotiating rents to help tenants survive, thinning their own bottom lines and potentially imperiling the commercial mortgage industry. Click to read more at www.houstonchronicle.com.

Hope Lingers For Retail, but Retail Real Estate is in for a Long Journey Back to Profitability

With stay-in-place orders keeping customers at home, the retail sector is set to face pressure unlike other asset classes. And as the NOIs at retail properties contract, that financial stress will radiate up the real estate infrastructure, from retailers shuttering their stores, to landlords unable to
collect rents to lenders themselves. How much pain retailers feel is directly tied to how long our pandemic countermeasures are kept in place. As of this writing, for example, Dallas County’s “Safer-at-Home” order is in effect until April 30, which rescinded and earlier extension by the commissioner’s court approving the county’s disaster declaration until May 20. “If we open the doors May 1, I think we will just fine. If we open the doors on June 1, there’s going to be collateral damage,” said Jennifer Pierson, managing partner at Dallas-based STRIVE. “If we go into August, I don’t think the word
‘severe’ would be an understatement.” Before the pandemic, retail was already suffering as e-commerce took its toll and consumers opted to shop from home. The one shining segment of the sector was experiential retail, a tag applied to everything from fitness centers to DIY pottery shops, but which is largely comprised of restaurants and bars. With shelter in place orders now keeping consumers away from these establishments too, many are in dire straits. The $2.2 trillion Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act, passed by Congress and signed into law by President Donald Trump on March 27, seeks in part to address this issue. Click to read more at www.rednews.com.

This Week in Healthcare Real Estate

The MOB market did well during Q1

At least through the first quarter (Q1) of this year, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic had not drastically impacted the performance of the medical office building (MOB) sector. In fact, quite the contrary, as MOB sales remained strong during Q1; construction remained on a solid path after a record-setting year for new project starts in 2019; occupancies held stead, especially in the country’s top 50 markets…HREI

Shutdown Tests MOBs as investment

As U.S. health-care systems limit medical services to emergency and urgent care situations in the face of COVID-19, medical office buildings are standing empty, and the threat of tenants missing lease payments mounts. Still, experts say, investors have every reason to keep MOBs high on their list of sector-favorites…CPE

Click to read more at www.coydavidson.com.

Distress signals are flashing in U.S. commercial real estate. But will it need a TALF rescue?

Hotel rooms, office buildings, and other commercial properties were lonely places last month as much of the nation operated under stay-at-home orders. Being a property owner might have made the lockdowns feel even lonelier. But as regions of the U.S. begin exploring ways to lift restrictive measures to contain the coronavirus and resume business, there is still plenty of uncertainty around what the toll will be on commercial properties, particularly since new protocols for returning to work, visiting the dentist and dining out are still being formed. Read U.S. commercial real estate braces for defaults as pandemic cuts cash flows. Barry Sternlicht, chief executive officer of Starwood Property Trust, Inc. STWD, -6.06%, this week described how hotels might begin resuming operations. “I think hotels, all hotels, will figure out how to operate with lower breakevens with fewer less-profitable parts,” he said during the real-estate company’s first-quarter earnings call. “There won’t be restaurants, there may not be room service, but they will try to fill heads and beds and staff to demand.” Click to read more at www.marketwatch.com.

Industrial Real Estate’s Positive Prognosis

The COVID-19 pandemic is disrupting the supply chain and forcing many consumers to change the way they shop. But while these disruptions are creating economic strain, they also present huge opportunities for industrial real estate.  “The industrial market is one of the obvious winners in the current situation,” said Bert Sanders, vice chairman at Newmark Knight Frank. It’s easy to see why. Social distancing has changed the nature of how people buy goods because, in the absence of conventional retail, consumers are making the most of their purchases online. The “just in time inventory “supply-chain strategy is suffering under the strain of this expansion of e-commerce. As a result, the need for warehousing of additional inventory has grown. Additionally, retail locations that are temporarily closed will need additional storage for their excess inventory, creating short-term demand for temporary space.  Click to read more at www.cpexecutive.com.