How To Invest In Real Estate When The Bubble Deflates

Amid mounting evidence that the rapid rise in home prices is over, investors in rental property will have more options over the next few years as sellers outnumber buyers and prices deflate – slowly in most markets but very rapidly in others.

As has ALWAYS happened in the past, home prices and rents will eventually re-align with local income. This readjustment may take years but investors don’t need to wait that long to spot good opportunities.

In all real estate markets, some local areas do better than others, on the downside as well as in boom times. Investors can spot the differences using solid local data.

Local data can tell you if there will be strong or weak demand for housing, in what rent range you find the heart of the rental market, and what type of investment will fare best in the local housing mix. Then investors can decide if an available property is a good fit for the local conditions. Click to read more at www.forbes.com.

Here Come the Renters: U.S. Households Living in Rental Units Hits 55-Year High in 2021

How strong is the country’s multifamily market? A new study by RentCafe found that 43.7 million U.S. households lived in rentals in 2021. That’s the highest this figure has been in the last 55 years.

And one-third of the people renting multifamily units this decade say that they are renting by choice, not necessity, accoding to RentCafe.

This trend doesn’t look ready to slow, either. RentCafe reported that as many as 101 zip codes in the country switched from owner-majority to renter-majority during the last decade. Today, there are more renters than homeowners in 41% of the zip codes in the United States’ 50 largest cities.

The 43240 zip code in Columbus, Ohio, saw the fastest increase in the number of renters, RentCafe said. In 2011, this zip code saw 1,192 renters. In 2020, that number had risen to 3,067, an increase of 157.3%. About 68% of the people living in this zip code are renters.

The 60606 zip code in Chicago ranked second on this list. In 2011, this zip code had 807 renters. In 2020, that figure had jumped 151.2% to 2,027. Here, renters account for 63% of the zip code’s population.

According to RentCafe’s research, the number of renters in the United States rose by 12% from 2011 to 2020. That is three times faster than the increase of 4% in homeowners during this same time.

Many of the zip codes with the fastest-growing renter populations are in city cores, RentCafe said. Eight of the 20 neighborhoods that grew their renter populations by more than 80% in the past decade are in or near downtowns.

A good example of this trend in the Midwest is zip code 55415 in central Minneapolis. According to RentCafe, this zip code saw a jump of 162% in its number of renters. This Twin Cities downtown zip code is now twice as renter-friendly as it was in 2011.

And in Nashville’s zip code of 37228, 100% of the area’s 1,289 residents are renters.

A Post-pandemic High: More Workers Back to the Office Than You Might Think

More workers are back in the office today, at least on a part-time basis, than you might think. According to the third quarter U.S. Office Outlook from JLL, 47% of workers were back in the office in some capacity in the third quarter. That’s a post-pandemic high.

It’s also an improvement. JLL reported that at this time last year, only 35% of workers were back in the office. JLL predicts that by the first quarter of 2023, 65% of workers will be back to the office, at least in a hybrid mode.

Other news in JLL’s report, though, wasn’ as positive. According to JLL, only 45.5 million square feet of office leases closed in the third quarter of this year. That’s down 3.6% from the second quarter. JLL pointed to a slowdown in the amount of tech leases for this drop-off.

Companies are still uncertain about the future, too, which has led to shorter office leases. JLL reported that the average lease term was 6.2 years in the third quarter. The average office lease term had grown to 9.1 years during the past 12 months before this drop.

Overall office vacancy rates continue to rise, increasing by 20 basis points in the third quarter to 19.1% nationally.

When tenants are moving into new space, more of them are looking for higher-quality space. This flight-to-quality has created 1.7 million square feet of positive net absorption in trophy-quality office space.

A Self-storage Success Story: Why Does it Continue to Outperform Previous Cycles?

Self-storage has become one of the most profitable real estate investments out there.

One of the “quieter” sectors, its numbers reflect broader shifts in consumer behavior, such as the permanent adoption of hybrid work schedules, the rebirth of recreational activities in the wake of the pandemic, and the continued migration of households to lower-cost metros, all of which are contributing to demand.

Marcus & Millichap’s recently released Q3 Self-Storage National Report gives us more insight.

Self-storage entered 2H 2022 in a strong position, having accumulated additional renter demand during the peak of COVID-19, and it has continued to outperform itself for the last few years.

The average asking rent for a standard 10-foot by 10-foot unit in June was up 15% compared to the end of 2019 and vacancy contracted 190 basis points to 6.6%. Chicago, specifically, experienced a more than 20% increase in rents—among the highest in the U.S.—between 2019 and 2022.

The report lists a few reasons for this. Properties, for one, have benefited from remote work, as well as population growth and migration.

Another reason for the sector’s continued growth is due to increased relocation activity. More than half of the millennial generation is now over the age of 30, which is spurring relocation as people pursue larger residences in more affordable metros. Many baby boomers have also reached the age of retirement, with the transition to a fixed income encouraging a migration to cities with lower taxes.

As for the future of self-storage, Marcus & Millichap said the pendulum could swing both ways. There’s a chance that softening consumer sentiment, due to inflation and climbing interest rates, could impact demand soon, as fewer new possessions and higher costs may cause storage renters to end leases. On the other hand, a recessionary period might prompt households to consolidate to mitigate expenses, translating to increased storage usage, based on the report.

Three-building Industrial Park Near Austin Sells

JLL Capital Markets has closed the sale of Buda Midway Phase I, a three-building, 474,465-square-foot, Class-AA industrial park in Buda, Texas.

JLL represented the seller, a joint venture between United Properties and PCCP, LLC, in the sale.

The recently delivered buildings were 100% pre-leased to CED Greentech, Sherri Hill and Four Hands. The buildings make up Phase I of a two-phase industrial park. Buda Midway Phase I is comprised of two rear-load and one cross-dock buildings offering 30- to 36-foot clear heights, 138 dock doors, 60 trailer parking spaces and 678 parking spaces. Phase II of Buda Midway will include four rear-load buildings totaling nearly 390,000 square feet and Building 1 is set for completion in spring 2023.

Situated on 35.29 acres at 1795 Fire Cracker Dr., Buda Midway Phase I is located at the crossroads of State Highway 45 and Interstate 35, one of the region’s most vital north/south thoroughfares that connects Mexico to Austin-San Antonio and Dallas-Fort Worth and beyond to the North Central region of the U.S. As a result, the property has quick access to SH-71 and US Highway 130. The Central Texas location offers tenants the ability to travel to each of the four major Texas markets within three hours or less in addition to nearly five million residents within an hour’s drive of Buda Midway. In addition, the property is located 17 miles from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport and 61 miles from San Antonio International Airport.

The JLL Capital Markets Industrial team representing the seller was led by Senior Managing Directors Trent Agnew and Dustin Volz, Directors Dom Espinosa, Associate Josh Villarreal and Analyst Megan Babovec.

Logistics Property Company Begins Construction on Industrial Build-to-suit for Fortune 50 Company

Logistics Property Company, LLC (LPC) announced the commencement of CityPark Logistics Center’s (CityPark) fourth building, which consists of a new Class-A, 151,200-square-foot, warehouse within the 98-acre CityPark property in Missouri City, Texas.

The build-to-suit will be delivered mid-2023 and will serve as the newest location for a Fortune 50 company. The building is being constructed to meet LEED® certification requirements.

This new logistics building is part of the greater CityPark Logistics Center, located at the corner of Beltway 8 and Highway 90 in Houston’s Southwest Industrial Submarket. The site is well positioned to serve the growing residential population and benefits from excellent interstate access.

CityPark’s existing footprint is comprised of three recently completed Class-A logistics buildings, totaling 454,000 square feet. LPC is currently in the design phase of a new 215,000-square-foot building at CityPark, which is expected to begin speculative construction in 2023 and is currently being marketed for lease.

The logistics park’s final phase will accommodate approximately 600,000 square feet with direct frontage and access to Beltway 8 and is currently being marketed as a build-to-suit.

Beau Kaleel and Brooke Forrest with Cushman & Wakefield are the leasing representatives for CityPark Logistics Center.