Commercial Real Estate Won’t Fully Rebound Until 2023, at Earliest, Says American Ventures’ Philip Blumberg

MIAMI, May 24, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Despite signs of a quicker-than-expected return to the office in the United States, the commercial real estate sector likely won’t rebound for another two to three years, says Philip Blumberg, the CEO of American Ventures who recently launched his fifth real estate fund since 1992. Perceived risk is the key and the reason why it typically takes much longer to recover from down real estate markets than it takes to get into them, he says. “Return to ‘normalcy’ will be dependent on how quickly tenants feel confident enough to renew or expand space,” said Mr. Blumberg. “Tenant uncertainty likely will take a while longer to sort out, tamping down rents and valuations for some time. It’ll take at least 24 months for companies to fully decide what they want to do.” Based on past commercial real estate troughs, Mr. Blumberg expects office investment to surge in 2023 or 2024 – in turn, inflating prices and drawing even more capital. In such a scenario, he envisions unwinding his portfolio – now being built – starting in 2026 or 2027. Mr. Blumberg’s American Ventures funds have performed well acquiring class A office assets in distressed markets. Over 16 years, their average annual return to investors, net of fees and costs, is approximately 18% (based on fund audits). Click to read more at