CCIM Commercial Real Estate Forecast Competition – February 2020

Keynote Speaker: Mark Dotzour, PhD We should have a solid economy ongoing in Houston and Texas, with a few ‘clouds’, such as election year uncertainty, China trade issues, and the Covid19 virus scare. Energy exploration and production will be curtailed due to lack of capital from investor/lenders, which should eventually lead to an upward trend in oil prices. Our current economic expansion is into its 129th month, and going strong. 2020 will be a little slower but consumer confidence and most other economic indicators remain strongly positive. Commerce is so interconnected on the planet that trade disputes will inevitably need to be worked out. Even if 2020 is a little slower, it should create pent-up demand for 2021. Wages are up about 3.5% a year, and lots of job openings remain, despite steady increase of hiring, which has been in the range of 200-300,000 new jobs per year in recent years. Housing starts are up and household debt is down; corporate profits are leveling off-companies did not reinvest savings from last tax cut but instead bought own stock. Unemployment claims are way down, and interest rates are low and going lower. It is a ‘given’ that we will have a recession in next five years but it is not on the immediate horizon. Click to read more at