Texas Quarterly Commercial Report

Third Quarter: Texas’ economy remained healthy in the longest U.S. economic expansion on record. Payroll growth slowed, but unemployment rates hovered at historical lows. Average hourly earnings failed to make positive headway after adjusting for inflation; second-quarter real income per capita, however, increased. Retail sales improved, but overall perceptions were tainted by political and trade-related concerns. Energy prices remained low amid record-breaking production and lowered expectations of global demand in 2020. Escalating trade tensions, political uncertainty, and the slowing world economy continue to be the largest headwinds to the current business-cycle expansion. For additional commentary and statistics, see Outlook for the Texas Economy. The Texas Nonresidential Construction Coincident Index, which measures current construction activity, indicates further expansion. However, the Texas Nonresidential Construction Leading Indicator, which measures potential future construction activity, suggests activity may slow going forward due to a decline in construction values even though commercial loans registered growth as interest rates have fallen. Click to read more at www.recenter.com.