Investors remain eager to sink their dollars into commercial real estate as 2026 begins. But uncertainty over tariffs, interest rates and high construction costs are preventing more from pulling the trigger on deals.

That’s one of the big takeaways from Coldwell Banker Commercial’s 2026 Outlook Report, a deep dive look at commercial real estate trends in the United States.

According to Coldwell Banker Commercial’s report, commercial real estate activity increased in the second half of 2025. But overall transaction volume remains low as 2026 begins.

The hope for this year? Coldwell points to the looming refinance wave — citing $957 billion in maturities — as a possible catalyst for fueling a jump in CRE transactions in 2026.

Other key findings from the report? Here’s what Coldwell Banker Commercial pointed to as some of its most interesting:

Interest is high, closings are not. Investor and user interest has increased, but tariffs, interest rates, and elevated construction costs continue blocking transactions. Owners/users are paying premiums and entering bidding wars to secure growth space.

Smaller properties are hot in growth markets. Coldwell Banker Commercial reports significant price increases for small spaces across retail, office and industrial in markets with strong population and wage growth. Land activity is elevated as residential developers compete with data center and logistics users for properly zoned sites.

Economic warning signs emerging. Unemployment hit 4.4% in November 2025, its highest level in four years. Despite strong consumer spending, consumer confidence is declining, likely because of high personal debt and persistent inflation.

Transaction volume up, but unevenly. Total U.S. CRE volume reached $385.7 billion through October 2025, up 13% YoY (MSCI Real Assets). Development sites, office, retail and senior housing outperformed, while multifamily and industrial lagged.

Cap rate spreads widening. Multifamily cap rates are lowest at 5.6%, industrial at 6.4%, and office highest at 7.5% (Real Capital Analytics). Retail cap rates dropped 60 bps over six months, while industrial rose 40 bps.

Stream Realty Partners broke ground on Summit Grove Business Park, a two-building, 217,120-square-foot industrial development at 21737 and 21811 Holzwarth Road in the North Houston submarket.

Strategically positioned near the crossroads of the Grand Parkway and Interstate 45, Summit Grove Business Park offers distribution tenants immediate access to some of Greater Houston’s fastest-growing suburban areas, such as Spring, The Woodlands, Conroe, and Tomball. Surrounded by a strong population and labor pool, as well as an array of nearby amenities, the development will deliver modern, institutional-quality space tailored to small to mid-sized tenants, meeting demand for local last-mile distribution and regional service operations.

Set to deliver in the summer of 2026, Summit Grove Business Park will feature two rear-load buildings, each equipped with ESFR sprinkler systems, two ramps, and ample parking. Building One will span 125,600 square feet with a 32-foot clear height and 47 dock-high doors, while Building Two will include 91,520 square feet with a 36-foot clear height and 31 dock-high doors. Together, the buildings provide flexible configurations for users ranging from 8,500 to 125,000 square feet.

Stream’s Industrial Development Services team leading the project includes Executive Managing Director & Partner Justin Robinson, Senior Director Tyler Wellborn, Associate Director Kristina Gibson, and Craig McKenna. Leasing efforts will be overseen by Managing Director Tyler Maner and Vice Presidents Grant Wisenbaker and Abe Richardson, while Stream’s Investment Management professionals involved include Portfolio Manager Mustafa Ali and Associate Tricia Larsen. The project team also includes EE Reed as the general contractor, Ware Malcomb as the architect, and Halff as the civil engineer.

CenterPoint Properties invested in a brand-new, Class-A distribution facility at 15277 Heritage Parkway in Fort Worth, Texas.

The fully leased building is the national industrial firm’s first in Fort Worth and eighth in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, where its portfolio now tops 2.3 million square feet.   

Rives Nolen, CenterPoint’s Central Region senior vice president of investments, said the drivers of his team’s interest in the investment were its “incomparable combo of features and location” at what he calls “the front door” to the coveted Alliance area of the North Fort Worth industrial submarket.

The 103,803-square-foot food-grade distribution facility is fully air-conditioned, features a 32-foot clear height, 27 dock-high doors, a drive-in, and an ESFR sprinkler system.

The more than 8-acre property accommodates parking for over 120 cars and features enhanced security, including fencing surrounding the entire building and a guard shack to help monitor the site’s single ingress/egress point.

Alliance is one of DFW’s strongest industrial areas, having seen a net absorption of more than 2 million square feet in 2025 alone. Overall, CBRE reports DFW had its 60th consecutive quarter of positive absorption in Q3 2025.  

CBRE National Partners represented the seller.

Oxford Properties Group acquired two retail assets in Austin, Texas – Wolf Ranch Town Center and Lakeline Plaza – through a newly formed joint venture. The investment marks Oxford’s first transaction with Pine Tree and represents its entrance into the US open-air retail sector.

The retail portfolio spans one million square feet and includes two strong performing, grocery-anchored shopping centers which are home to some of the most recognizable national retailers in the US, including Target, TJ Maxx, Best Buy, Ulta Beauty and more. Aligned to Oxford’s conviction in high-quality, well-located assets with positive long-term supply and demand fundamentals, Wolf Ranch and Lakeline Plaza are both 99%+ leased and benefit from high visitor traffic driven by their strategic positioning in the Austin market.

The city of Austin continues to experience robust population and income growth, fueling consumer spending and thereby reinforcing Oxford’s conviction in the resilience and growth potential of the properties. Located at one of the Austin region’s busiest intersections, Wolf Ranch is a ~633,000 square feet open-air retail center in Georgetown that attracts over seven million annual visitors. Lakeline Plaza, southwest of Wolf Ranch, spans ~386,000 square feet at a core retail intersection in Cedar Park and features a strong mix of national brands and necessity-based retailers.

By entering the US open-air retail market, Oxford acquires assets in a sector that is durable and buoyed by a lack of supply, offering significant downside protection amid economic headwinds.

The acquisition of this two-property portfolio in the Austin metropolitan area – where Oxford has an existing presence in the residential and industrial sectors – builds on Oxford’s established global retail business that spans nearly 10 million square feet and represents ~$8.8 billion AUM. Known for attracting best-in-class retailers and achieving industry-leading performance, Oxford’s retail properties are visited by over 100 million people annually from across the globe. This includes flagship retail assets in the Greater Toronto Area which consistently rank as continental and national market leaders, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC).

Pine Tree will operate the shopping centers on behalf of the joint venture, leveraging its proven 30-year track record of investing in, managing, and creating value across a diverse portfolio of retail assets across the US through multiple market cycles.

The transaction was brokered by Kyle Minter and Conor Lalor of Newmark.

 JLL Capital Markets announced today that it has arranged a $130 million refinancing for the Vireo BTR Portfolio, a premier collection of three Class-A build-to-rent properties strategically located across the Dallas, Austin and Tampa metropolitan areas.

JLL represented the borrower in securing the refinancing through KeyBank National Association’s – Institutional Real Estate Group, after a competitive loan process.

The portfolio consists of residential units across 780,624 rentable square feet. The three properties include Vireo Medical District, a 210-unit property at 2300 S. McDonald St. in McKinney, Texas that delivered in 2024 and recently stabilized; Vireo Twelve Oaks, a 217-unit property at 201 Morningstar Blvd. in Georgetown, Texas that recently delivered in 2025 and is currently in lease-up; and Vireo Wesley Chapel, a 181-unit project at 1219 Violetear Dr. in Wesley Chapel, Florida that is currently finishing up construction.

The portfolio offered a rare financing opportunity that blends the privacy and space of single-family homes with the amenities and convenience of multi-community living, creating a scarce, high-quality product that meets the growing demand for luxury rental housing in their respective metropolitan areas.

Vireo BTR Portfolio offers residents premium amenities and modern living spaces while providing the lifestyle benefits of detached housing within professionally managed communities, epitomizing quality and desirability in the build-to-rent sector.

The JLL Capital Markets Debt Advisory team representing the borrower was led by Senior Managing Director Jim Curtin, Director Lauren Dow, Vice President Rex Cruz and Analyst Obi Eboh.

A growing number of renters are spending too much of their incomes on rent, according to the latest research from Zumper.

In its 2025 State of Renting Report, Zumper reported that 59% of renter respondents said that they are rent-burdened, spending more than 30% of their incomes on rent each month.

Renters surveyed by Zumper said that they would consider it reasonable to spend 28% of their income on rent. Unfortunately, renters in the survey said that they are spending 40% of their incomes on rent on average.

Renters don’t expect their financial situations to improve, either. According to the survey, 82% of renters say they lack confidence in the U.S. economy and 66% said that they believe the United States is in a recession.

Another interesting finding? The days of most renters working from home appear to be over. Only 12% of renters said they now work fully remote, down from about 25% in 2021 through 2023. As the return-to-the-office movement gains strength, more renters are moving back toward major employment hubs. The top-five destinations renters relocated to in 2025 were Los Angeles, Atlanta, New York City, San Francisco and Charlotte, Zumper reported.

A total of 35% of renter respondents told Zumper that they do not believe that the American Dream includes owning a home. That is up from 27% in 2021. What’s behind this trend? High housing prices, high mortgage interest rates and lifestyle preferences.

When it comes to finding apartment units, more renters are turning to AI. Zumper found that nearly 10% of renters said that they used tools like ChatGPT to help find a new apartment unit. That figure rose to as high as 15% in major coastal cities. Apartment hunters used AI for everything from tour booking to question-and-answer support, Zumper said.