Retail sales are expected to grow 3.5% to 4% this holiday season, bringing the total expected spend in excess of $1.7 trillion, according to ICSC’s 2025 holiday shopping forecast.
ICSC also released the results of its annual Holiday Shopping Intentions Survey exploring consumer expectations for the season, finding that 243 million consumers (91%) plan to shop this year, an increase from last year.
“Despite economic concerns, our survey shows that consumers are committed to their holiday traditions and plan to shop,” said ICSC President and chief executive officer Tom McGee. “Our forecast reflects that resilience, but our data also signals a selective shopper, putting pressure on retailers to connect with shoppers in new ways and offer memorable shopping experiences that entice them to spend.”
Amid the uncertain economic environment, 65% of consumers agree that it’s more important than ever to celebrate holiday traditions. In line with this, many holiday shoppers are turning to activities and experiences. Respondents that plan to gift activities like tickets to movies and events increased by five percentage points to 21% year-over-year. One in three also plan to spend more on experiences this holiday season compared to last year.
The survey found that 92% of shoppers plan to spend in a physical store, led by younger generations. Omnichannel shopping continues to grow in popularity, with 52% of consumers indicating they plan to take advantage of buy-online, pick-up-in-store options. Discount department stores (63%) and traditional department stores (29%) remain the most popular types of retailers consumers plan to visit. In a sign of opportunity for emerging retailers, 80% of consumers are open to visiting new stores or trying new brands.
Gift cards continue to be the most popular item this holiday season, with 64% of respondents planning to buy them, up six percentage points since 2024. Sixty-three percent of holiday shoppers agree that giving gift cards enables them to stick to a budget and avoid higher prices on individual items. Apparel (55%), toys and games (54%), and food and beverages (43%) rounded out the top categories.
Tariffs are a significant factor shaping consumer attitudes this season – and consumers indicated that they will also impact where they plan to shop. Seventy-one percent of respondents plan to be more selective when making holiday-related purchases due to perceived price increases from tariffs; further, 63% would avoid buying from retailers that raise prices significantly.
Shoppers plan to use many different tactics to find lower prices. Sixty-four percent plan to spend more time looking for deals this year, and 67% believe the search for discounts or exclusive offers will encourage them to take more trips to stores. Thirty-two percent plan to use AI tools to help them with their holiday shopping and gift ideas, an increase over 25% in 2024.
“It’s clear from our research that economic factors aren’t just shaping consumer sentiment – they’re directly impacting where and how consumers shop,” said McGee. “Convenience, competitive pricing, and attentive service are table stakes in this environment. Retailers that truly listen to consumer signals have ample opportunity to capture consumer dollars this season.”
