National rents are treading water as the U.S. apartment market moves through what many analysts describe as a holding pattern, waiting for clearer economic signals and the arrival of the all-important spring leasing season.
According to Zumper’s National Rent Index released Jan. 27, median U.S. one-bedroom rents slipped 0.1% month over month in January to $1,503. Two-bedroom rents edged slightly higher, rising 0.2% to a median of $1,879.
On a year-over-year basis, rents remain in negative territory, down 2% for one-bedroom units and 1.5% for two-bedrooms. The data underscores the continued softness in national pricing after several years of dramatic swings.
Elevated interest rates, even after recent easing, have kept many potential homebuyers on the sidelines, sustaining rental demand but not at levels strong enough to drive meaningful rent growth. At the same time, broader economic uncertainty and a cooling labor market have slowed household formation and mobility, limiting the number of renters entering the market or trading up to more expensive units.
Layered on top of these demand-side pressures is the sizable wave of new apartment supply delivered over the past two years. Many large metros are still working to absorb that inventory, extending lease-up timelines and forcing owners to rely more heavily on concessions to maintain occupancy. That dynamic has curtailed landlords’ pricing power, particularly during the winter months, which are traditionally the slowest period for leasing activity.
“The U.S. rental market is largely frozen right now, caught between elevated economic uncertainty and the normal seasonal slowdown we see in the winter months,” said Anthemos Georgiades, CEO of Zumper, in a statement. “While new supply deliveries are set to ease in 2026, any rebound in rents is unlikely to be uniform. Markets that have already worked through excess inventory may see a faster snapback than what national averages suggest. The spring leasing season will offer a clearer signal of where the market is headed.”
For many Midwest markets, the story mirrors national trends, though often with less volatility. Cities that avoided the most aggressive construction booms of the Sun Belt have generally seen steadier occupancy and less dramatic rent corrections. Still, even these markets are feeling the effects of slower job growth and cautious consumer sentiment, which have tempered rent increases that once seemed all but inevitable.
The broader economic backdrop remains a key variable. As inflation continued to cool and the labor market softened more than expected, the Federal Reserve shifted its focus toward supporting economic growth, delivering three quarter-point interest rate cuts in 2025. While those cuts have provided some relief, borrowing costs remain high enough to influence both renter and developer behavior.
For now, apartment owners are playing defense, prioritizing retention and occupancy over aggressive rent hikes. Renters, meanwhile, are benefiting from increased negotiating leverage, especially in markets with elevated vacancy and abundant new supply. Whether that balance shifts later this year will depend largely on how quickly excess inventory is absorbed and whether economic confidence improves.
As Georgiades noted, the spring leasing season should provide the next meaningful indicator. Until then, the national rental market appears content to wait, frozen in place but poised for movement once conditions thaw.