Well, it has certainly been a rather interesting year, especially the past 100 plus days. If 2020 was a book, it would have been written by Stephen King—and Quentin Tarantino would have directed the film adaptation. My thoughts and prayers go out to all of those who have been affected by the pandemic. We will persevere. As we now find ourselves in the second half of the year, I thought it would be beneficial to provide to you a few salient comments about the macro capital market environment, from my perch, as well as a summation of what I expect the balance of this year and into 2021. There are five main topics I would like to cover:
THIS IS NOT THE GFC OF 2008-2010
As much as we want to compare this economic downturn to the events of 2008–2010 and even September 2001, there are stark differences to both. On Jan. 15, the commercial real estate market across the globe, and especially in the U.S., was the best performing market we have ever witnessed. It was nirvana. The GFC was really a global issue of risk not being priced appropriately and an oversupply problem in the U.S. This time, it is much different. Perhaps, the hospitality market (oversupply and systematic issues) and the retail market (primarily eCommerce) reacted appropriately. However, I feel the office market overcorrected and the pendulum has swung too far. Click to read more at www.dmagazine.com.