Forecasting commercial real estate winners and losers in the post-pandemic world

The effects of the new coronavirus on commercial real estate will be long-lasting, as restaurants close, retailers file for bankruptcy and companies that occupy office space rethink their entire workplace strategies. Previous health-related downturns have been brief and followed by relatively quick recoveries, but the amount of time it will take for the economy to rebound from the coronavirus is less predictable, Ben Breslau, chief research officer of JLL Americas, said Thursday on a conference call to discuss the pandemic’s impact on commercial real estate leasing and the economy. There will be winners and losers among, and even within, different property sectors. How retail tenants have been affected by the pandemic has been sharply divided. Grocery, liquor, home improvement and other stores states have deemed to be essential are doing well. Restaurants, bars and mall stores are feeling the most pain as consumers stay home. Twelve percent of restaurants in Texas are expected to shut down permanently within a month, according to a survey by the National Restaurant Association. One out of every 50 have already done so. When dining rooms do reopen, it will take longer to get back to their previous sales levels. Many many are expected to return with 50 percent capacity to allow for safe social distancing, said Naveen Jaggi, president of Retail Advisory Services at JLL. Click to read more at